With Spring Training getting underway today I think it's appropriate to take a look at the upcoming 2009 baseball season. After a very competitive year around the league last season, look for the competition to be even stiffer this year. Let's start by going division by division.
AL Central:
Last year was a tight race that ended with the White Sox edging the Twins in a 1 game playoff. I could argue day and night why the Twins were the better team and deserved to play that game at home, but instead let's just put it behind us and look ahead to this season.
Chicago White Sox Preview: The White Sox traded Javier Vasquez to the Atlanta Braves leaving their starting pitching a bit thin. Anchored by veteran left hander Mark Buehrle, the White Sox pitching staff will struggle this year with a lack of depth and overall talent. Jon Danks and Gavid Floyd have shown signs of being steady middle of the rotation guys, but they are still brutally inconsistent. Bartolo Colon is slated to be the #4 or #5 guy, and while he pitched good in a short stint with Boston last year, word is that he got lazy this offseason. The White Sox will also struggle to maintain their high level of offensive production that they showed in years past. Losing Joe Crede won't hurt that bad, but replacing him with a college quarterback named Josh Fields will. Fields has good pop, but struggles with a high strikeout/walk ratio. Jim Thome and Paul Konerko will each get their 30HRs, but not without the cost of striking out 130+ times and hitting below .270. Carloas Quinten and Jermaine Dye are the 2 bats that anchor the White Sox lineup, and I'm just not sure if Quinten can have the same kind of production 2 years in a row. Nonetheless I still see the White Sox as an AL Central contender and a team that could win 90games if the chips fall right.
Minnesota Twins: The Twins have to be disappointed after last year's should've been division title. They return essentially their entire team that won 88 games last season, and the core of that team is in their mid 20s. The pitching staff will be headed by potential all-stars Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano, both of whom will make a run at 18 wins and a sub 3 ERA. The bottom 3 guys in Slowey, Blackburn and Perkins are one of the better back 3s in the game today. Slowey is kind of a Derek Lowe type of pitcher, a guy who relies on his sinker and great control to get a ton of groundballs. I expect him to be a 15 game winner this year. Blackburn showed signs of being an ace last year, but he also showed how young he was and his lack of feel for a changeup. When his cutter was flying around he was unhittable, but when it was left up he was exposed. I think he has a shot to win 13 or 14, but his ceiling is much higher. As for Perkins, he's kind of an enigma, he has great stuff but he's got a 10 cent brain, I believe the Twins would be better of trading him while his stock is maxed out. On offense I expect the same thing as last year for the Twins. They will hit for a high average, hit well with RISP, but they will finish near or at the bottom of the league in Home Runs. This is the story of most years for the Twins so it won't come as a surprise when it happens again in 2009. Morneau will get 25-30, Kubel 15-20, Young 15-20, and Crede(playing 140 games) would get 10-15. Now other than those 5 guys, the likelihood of anyone else getting double digits is close to zero. That being said they should still win a ton of games with game management and small ball.
Cleavland Indians: Last year was a disaster after coming off a ALCS appearance in 2007. They traded CC Sabithia for overrated 3B prospect Matt Gamel, and Fausto Carmona reverted back to his 2006 form of walking a ton of guys and giving up a bunch of dingers. If Carmona is CY caliber again this year they have a shot to be above .500, and if not they are going to be a bottom dweller in the AL Central. Cliff Lee will not repeat his dominance of 2008, but he should still be solid. After those 2 they have Carl Pavano, Anthony Reyes and Adam Miller. Correct me if I'm wrong but not one of those guys has thrown over 50 innings in a season in a few years. Those are just spare parts being thrown on a major league roster. The Indians rotation is going to struggle throughout the year, and as a result they will need a miracle to make the playoffs. On offense they have some good bats, but not near enough to be a contender. Victor Martinez will be healthy and should get back to hitting .300/25/100, while Travis Hafner MIGHT get back to his 2006 form of slugging over .650. Other than those 2 guys all they have is centerfielder Grady Seizmore. While Seizmore is a very good all-around toolsy player, he's a bit overrated at this point in his career. Sure he hit 30HRs last year, but he hit .260 as a leadoff guy. He has all the tools to be a star but at this point he hasn't put it all together, and until he does Cleavland will struggle to score runs consistently.
Kansas City Royals: Call me crazy, but I think the Royals can win 80 games this year. Having a starting rotation with Gill Meche, Zach Greinke, Brian Bannister, Luke Hochevar and Kyle Davies should eat up a ton of innings taking the pressure of their bullpen. Meche has always been a solid guy, and Grienke, Bannister and Hochevar were all high draft picks with live arms. I honestly think their rotation could be the 2nd best in the division behind the Twins. The bullpen will be very shaky after dealing Ramon Ramirez to the Red Sox, but the closer role will be great with young sensation Jokaim Soria. The biggest concern has to be if Soria goes down, because the next guy in line is Kyle Farnsworth, yikes. On offense adding Mike Jacobs and Coco Crisp should add some much needed power and speed to their anemic offense. Add those 2 guys with a lineup already including Alex Gordon, Jose Guillen and Billy Butler, and I think you have an offense that can score with the Twins and White Sox.
Detroit Tigers: Talk about a proof positive that spending a ton of money will not guarantee you anything. The Tigers spent more money than any team last offseason, and yet they failed to win 75 games. With ESPN and every major media source pimping that great offense in the beginning of the year, it was hard to realize that their starting rotation SUCKED, and most knowledgeable sports fans knew that. Justin Verlander has a very live arm and a ton of potential, but he also lacks a solid 3rd pitch after his fastball and curve, leaving me(and many others) to believe he'll end up a closer down the road. After Verlander their rotation is abysmall. Armando Gallaraga, Jeremey Bonderman, Edwin Jackson and then a combination of the D-Train/Nate Robertson and Zach Miner(and possibly 20 year old phenom Rick Porcello come August). Talk about a team who should maybe hold on to a few pitching prospects once in a while. That rotation is brutal, and they'll be lucky to win 80 games again this year. The bullpen is solid but lacks a true closer. Brandon Lyon has a good arm, as does Joel Zumaya, but nobody with enough experience to feel truly confident in. The lineup should produce nice power numbers once again with Granderson, Magglio, Cabrera, Sheffield Laird and Guillen, but they have a big hole at short with Adam Everett. All in all they will score a lot of runs but give up even more.
Predicted Order of Finish:
1. Minnesota
2. Chicago
3. Detroit
4. Kansas City
5. Cleavland
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